By Anthony Rosenthal

The June inflation print that reopened the cut path was measured before oil rose fifteen percent in a week. Japan pays first, the crash gauge is calm on dials that cannot see the barrel, rugby sells its structure, and the call ledger publishes its first final verdicts, the loss first.

The Mid-Year Reckoning: every call since February, scored in public. Thirteen right, six wrong. Cheaper energy no longer buys a rate cut, the 30-year clears 5 percent, and leadership leaves the AI mega-caps.

Leadership hands from the AI core to the rest of the market, inflation hands from energy to tariffs, and the Fed hands its judgement to a rule: the strongest quarter since 2020 ends with a record Dow set on a jobs number half of forecast, Brussels faces an Independence Day tariff deadline, the crash gauge nearly halves to 15, and Mitsubishi UFJ joins the book.

The market repriced the AI build-out on its own electricity-and-silicon bill: the Nasdaq's fifth straight losing session, a reported OpenAI IPO delay, and Micron's blow-out memory quarter confirming the demand even as its sector was sold. Hormuz returned on a Friday drone strike; NewLimit's longevity bet headlines the case study; prime editing produced its first published cure; and the Augmenter extends its lead to 16-4.

Energy risk fell and rate risk rose in the same week: oil broke below $80 on an Iran deal heading for signature, while Warsh's first Fed meeting held but penned a hawkish dot plot — then the signing slipped on Friday. The mid-year Repricing check-in, the bond market as a flawed oracle, a new On the Radar name where Druckenmiller and Marks converged, and the Augmenter extends its lead to 13–3.

The Gulf war and the interest-rate fight became one trade as oil slid on a possible Iran peace, four days before Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting. SpaceX prices the largest listing in history into a war week; the crash gauge ticks into Elevated Caution; the 2026 Repricing thesis check-in; and the Displacer scores its first point on the economic shock.

A blowout jobs report erased rate-cut hopes. A dovish Fed chair walks into his first meeting with the market daring him to do the opposite of what he promised. Oil: stabilised but not healed. The breadth paradox, the IPO lock-up thesis, and the Augmenter vs the Displacer scorecard.

Oil pricing peace. Equities pricing AI acceleration. Bonds pricing persistent inflation. Three instruments, three incompatible futures. The Wilde theorem and what it means when price and value separate across every major asset class simultaneously.

Financial markets at year-to-date highs. Consumer confidence at a 74-year low. The distance between what the tape is saying and what people are experiencing is the defining feature of this market cycle — and this edition is about who is right.

CPI at 3.8%. The Taylor Rule waiting. The market has priced the chair — it has not priced the first press conference. Kevin Warsh's opening act, what the bond market is telling us that equities are ignoring, and the Citrini-Citadel AI debate scorecard.

The formal introduction of the WMP's 2026 annual thesis: three of the five major asset classes will move in different directions by December. The falsifiable claim that will be scored at year-end. Plus: the Wednesday Signal launches, On the Radar scoring begins.

Four asset classes already moving in different directions — the Repricing thesis is playing out faster than expected. The introduction of This Week in History. On the Radar: the energy infrastructure plays that are repricing the cost of power.

The most dangerous moment in any rally is when hope becomes the consensus. On the Radar makes its debut with Bloom Energy, Freeport-McMoRan, and Nscale. The corrected Scoreboard baselines shift the year's narrative from a copper supercycle to energy infrastructure dominance.

The week that tested the Scoreboard baselines: a copper YTD figure that did not look right, the correction that followed, and what it revealed about how easily a single data error can skew an entire narrative. The Supply Shock thesis debuts.

The first HTML edition of the Weekly Market Pulse. Brent crude at its Hormuz-war peak. The Scoreboard launches with 25 assets and locked 1 January baselines. The framework that will track 2026's asset class repricing is set.